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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.