Morgan Rogers' Scoring Streak Drives Villa's Improbable Push for Glory
A mere 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him for missing a through-ball. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or the source of the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. After the in-form star swept in his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win , after failing to win any of their first six games, find themselves only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.
As per the data, in only two games has the side posted an xG notably superior than the other team. For a side that have put together a ten-match winning streak, they appear strangely fragile – however at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the football into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers now would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.